Polymarket Faces Backlash Over Venezuela Bet Settlement Dispute
Polymarket has sparked trader outrage by refusing to settle prediction market bets on US military action in Venezuela, despite the capture and extradition of President Nicolás Maduro. The platform ruled the operation didn't meet its strict definition of 'invasion,' voiding what WOULD have been a $430,000 payout for one anonymous bettor.
The controversy centers on a contract asking whether the US would invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026. Traders argue the rapid military extraction of Maduro qualifies, while Polymarket maintains territorial control wasn't established. The decision collapsed invasion odds below 5% post-event.
This incident highlights the challenges of structuring geopolitical prediction markets, particularly when real-world outcomes blur contractual definitions. The dispute may erode confidence in Polymarket's ability to adjudicate high-stakes, politically sensitive events.
